It’s midnight Eastern Time as “Election Day” ends, and CNN, FOX and the other networks refuse to call the race, but I’m ready to project the winner of the presidential race.
With 95 percent confidence, I can now say that Trump will end up with at least 279 electoral votes. You only need 270 votes to win, so yep President Trump has been re-elected.
There are no results from Nevada, so Trump could conceivably add that state’s 6 votes as well. I conceded that Trump will lose Arizona (still might change but not likely), Minnesota and probably Wisconsin (he’s ahead by 4 points right now), but I awarded him Pennsylvania, where he is ahead by 14 points, and Michigan, where he has an 11 point lead. I also gave North Carolina and Georgia to Trump, which the news channels refuse to do. If Trump loses North Carolina with a late shift, I might have egg on my face, but I’m willing to take that risk.
So yeah, it’s closer than I would have liked, but I think we will see President Trump in the White House for four more years. Hopefully the GOP holds at least 50 seats in the Senate, so he can get his judges confirmed!
[UPDATE: New York Times now says Georgia (16 electoral votes) is likely to go for Biden. If it does, my math goes out the window. Trump would need to hold Arizona (11 votes) or Wisconsin (10 votes) for the win or pick up Nevada (6 votes) to eek out a tie. You can read my Real Clear Politics column on the nightmare scenario of an Electoral College tie here.]
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