It’s midnight Eastern Time as “Election Day” ends, and CNN, FOX and the other networks refuse to call the race, but I’m ready to project the winner of the presidential race.
With 95 percent confidence, I can now say that Trump will end up with at least 279 electoral votes. You only need 270 votes to win, so yep President Trump has been re-elected.
There are no results from Nevada, so Trump could conceivably add that state’s 6 votes as well. I conceded that Trump will lose Arizona (still might change but not likely), Minnesota and probably Wisconsin (he’s ahead by 4 points right now), but I awarded him Pennsylvania, where he is ahead by 14 points, and Michigan, where he has an 11 point lead. I also gave North Carolina and Georgia to Trump, which the news channels refuse to do. If Trump loses North Carolina with a late shift, I might have egg on my face, but I’m willing to take that risk.
So yeah, it’s closer than I would have liked, but I think we will see President Trump in the White House for four more years. Hopefully the GOP holds at least 50 seats in the Senate, so he can get his judges confirmed!
[UPDATE: New York Times now says Georgia (16 electoral votes) is likely to go for Biden. If it does, my math goes out the window. Trump would need to hold Arizona (11 votes) or Wisconsin (10 votes) for the win or pick up Nevada (6 votes) to eek out a tie. You can read my Real Clear Politics column on the nightmare scenario of an Electoral College tie here.]
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2 Replies to “I’m ready to project a winner: Trump 279, Biden 259”
I dont have T.V..
SOooo read HD/USA
From your ‘lips’ to Gods ears…
This year more than at any other time in the past 75-years, a gracious Acceptance Speech is in order. The reason, of course, is the need to return the nation to stability and end the murders, riots and vandalism of the Left-Wing Extremists. Here is some of what I would be saying had I been a winning candidate;
Yes. We won, all of us. There is lots more to this win because, in an American election, there are no losers. None! Ever. The election process gives everyone the chance to be great and to serve. The act of running proves your willingness and your promise. If you don’t happen to win, you certainly have not lost. Your grapes need not be sour.
You have drawn public attention and you have built trust. Most public office will not pay well and thus you have already proved that you are willing to do more for others than you will do for yourself. You can run another time. You now have a fresh set of campaigning skills and you can run again or boost another candidate. Either way you will deal with angry calls at 3AM. Whether you are a winner or the person who did not win, you can serve. You will face citizens who are so angry about problems that they sputter and cannot express themselves. It is your job to sort their meanings out and find solutions for them.
Winners often have the opportunities to hire others and their opponents are likely to be the best candidates for those jobs.
There are no losers in an American election.